What Makes a Leader? A Data-Driven Framework for Impact and Legacy

Idle curiosity again. Nerdiness for history again. And again a new found fascination for Gen AI tools. This time I tried my hand at evaluating Leadership. Not business leaders or CEOs – but emperors , leaders of countries and reformers and dictators.

Across centuries and across continents.

What makes a leader truly impactful? And what helps leaders leave a legacy?

Can we build a diagnostic model basis observable traits?

And how can Gen AI help?

Objectives

– Define a leader’s short-term impact and long-term legacy.
– Identify measurable inputs that contribute to leadership outcomes.
– Normalize across era, geography, governance type, and ideology.
– Build a predictive and diagnostic framework.
– Test the model on a cohort of diverse historical leaders.

Challenges

The task was complex. Leadership is not a universal currency. What counts as success for a 13th-century nomadic warlord may be the opposite of success for a 20th-century democrat. We had to avoid moral contamination, category bleed, and modern-day bias—while retaining judgment grounded in observable consequence. We refined, retested, and repeatedly stress-tested our framework using a mix of logic, historical context, and rigorous modeling.

Our Methodology

We eventually defined two outcome variables:
– Impact: Tangible, near-to-mid-term results achieved during the leader’s lifetime. Value-neutral.
– Legacy: Long-term influence, moral judgment, and remembered significance. More value-laden.

Then, we defined six input variables—Vision, Executional Efficacy, Resilience, Charisma & Influence, Ethical Governance, and Human Development Focus—each with structured subcategories. We scored each leader in the dataset across all categories.

This is what each of the input  variables mean :

Vision – is the ability to articulate a coherent vision. This is not necessarily about a ‘Grand’ vision or ‘Big’ ideas . This is about coherence , the ability to predict future trends , long term planning and  importantly the ability to communicate these ideas.

Executional Efficacy – the ability to deliver results despite structural issues , the ability to overcome hurdles. Ofcourse clearer the vision the better it gets for execution.

Resilience – the will and personal endurance to carry on despite setbacks.

Charisma – the emotional impact on followers , propaganda and mythmaking.

Ethical Governance – now this is interesting. This is essentially tolerance for dissent , ‘consultative’ness , protection of vulnerable groups. In many ways , this indicates the leader’s willingness or ability to build lasting institutions.

Human Development focus: as the name suggests how did said leader improve standards of living. As an extension how did he or she ‘develop’ their people .

It was important to overcome modern day biases while ranking leaders on Input variables. I could not let our moral values define how we view leaders during that time. For example , we did not penalize Churchill for being an imperialist – it was a fault of his times.

Similarly , I had to overcome ‘hindsight’ bias. So ,we rewarded or penalized leaders basis their decision making using the best possible information available during their time.

I also had to normalize for monarchies vs modern states. I did not penalize a monarch for ‘centralization’ but rewarded him if he was ‘consultative’. Similarly , I did not reward leaders in a democratic set up for being consultative but penalized them if they trampled on democratic norms.

Each of the input variables was a point system – reward and penalties. For example , in Vision Churchill was rewarded for anticipating the Hitler threat but penalized for his inability to predict the post war world order.

In Ethical Governance – Nehru was rewarded for his institution building but penalized for the first emergency in a state in India (Kerala) and his indifference to corruption in the Congress party.

Testing the Model

We then tested the model with a fixed cohort of 11 leaders, including Churchill, Nehru, Deng Xiaoping, Genghis Khan, Akbar, Atatürk, and others. We added more leaders for stress tests—like Lincoln, Catherine the Great, and Napoleon—using a ‘reverse test’: predicting outcome scores from inputs alone, then comparing against actual outcome evaluations.

We took out correlations for Impact and Legacy separately with each of the input variables. Here is how they look:

Input CategoryCorrelation with Impact
Executional Efficacy0.73
Vision & Clarity0.65
Resilience0.61
Human Development0.47
Charisma & Influence0.43
Ethical Governance-0.22

Interestingly in order to create short impact – execution efficacy seems the most important with clarity of vision and resilience being close. Ethical governance doesn’t seem to matter for short term impact too much.

The correlations for Legacy however were very different:

Input CategoryCorrelation with Legacy
Human Development Focus0.76
Vision and Clarity of Thought0.72
Executional Efficacy0.68
Ethical Governance0.63
Resilience0.54
Charisma and Influence0.51

Key Insights

The most predictive input for Impact was Executional Efficacy. For Legacy, Ethical Governance and Human Development emerged stronger.
We learned that:
– Vision matters, but only if it’s translated into reality.
– Ethical leaders don’t always have the highest short-term impact, but they often shape lasting legacies.
– People tend to forgive ‘strongman’ flaws in pursuit of results, but legacies demand fairness and systems.

Hitler for example had a very powerful impact during his time but his legacy has been dark. He had a coherent vision. We may not like it , yet it was a well articulated coherent vision. He had fantastic charisma , resilience and great execution abilities. All of this helped him create a great impact. In fact he is among the top in Impact. However , he is the bottom most in Legacy – being the bottom most in both Ethical Governance and Human Development.

Abraham Lincoln seems to emerge as the all round star – with consistently high rankings on both input and output.

Deng XiaoPing also does well in most categories – both input and output -except in Charisma and Ethical Governance.

Genghis Khan has the highest score in Impact and the highest score in Execution ,while his vision was very limited – he has middling scores in vision. It was not a grand vision yet it had coherence enough for tribal leaders to follow him.

Nehru scores high on vision , but middling scores in all the other input and output variables.

The below is the table of ranks:

Also the rankings are NOT comparisons between leaders. They operated in widely different contexts. They are just a way to aggregate and rank them basis their scores.

The Role of GenAI

This project was co-created with Generative AI. The human provided direction, historical insight, and iterative corrections. The AI enabled rigorous structure, memory, and hypothesis testing at scale. Neither alone would have sufficed. Together, we built something both rigorous and—perhaps—useful. However , it was a long chat. And by the end Chat Gpt had started massively hallucinating.

Final Reflections

This is not an academic exercise. Nor is it rigorous. It is interesting though. I don’t claim to have answered the question of leadership fully. But I have offered a way to structure it—one that blends history, analytics, and AI to illuminate what makes certain leaders resonate across time. This is a living model, and I invite comments and critiques.

KNAPSACK

It was the end of the road , I had scaled another peak 

I was weary so I sat down and emptied my knapsack on the side of the road 

I hadn’t looked at it’s contents in a long while , 

I am a collector ,all of my valuables and my winnings were in the knapsack  

I was eager and excited , I had so much to show for my difficult trek up the mountain 

So I empty it and go through it’s contents 

I surprised myself by feeling a twinge of disappointment and of sadness 

Why do my trophies look like mere baubles? 

Why do my winnings look like mere trinkets? 

I had collected many pieces of silver , why is their shine so dull? 

I searched my memory , why is it so hazy? 

When I was fighting for those trophies, they seemed so important , so shiny 

Everyone around seemed to agree , they clapped and cheered me on didn’t they? 

They appear as mere baubles now , so I threw them away 

I turn to my winnings now and my many pieces of silver 

I remember the many casinos and markets along the trek 

Where I had gambled away my time and many pieces of my soul 

Just so I could win these – they seemed so shiny then – the pieces of silver and my many winnings 

I remember wanting them , so badly 

Now they appear lusterless , so I threw them away 

I searched myself , I looked for my soul 

It was riddled through with holes , I had been breaking pieces of it to gamble away 

It seemed easier that way coming up , lighter 

I looked at my watch , I didn’t have too much time left 

I had spent too much of it winning baubles and trinkets 

I sighed 

This has been yet another all too familiar experience 

Another false peak , another knapsack that I threw away 

I get up with difficulty , groaning and weary , searching the horizon 

I spy another peak 

May be this will be the one 

I have some time left , however little 

I have still parts of my soul left to gamble away 

May be I wont have to throw away the knapsack after scaling this one 

I hope this will be the last 

I haven’t time nor much of a soul left 







DREAMS AND MEMORIES

When I was younger , I used to dream – vividly and all the time,

I used to dream so hard that sometimes I would confuse them for memories

But real memories intrude now ,And they wont let me dream anymore

I used to dream of vast vistas of stunning landscapes ,I used to dream of breathtaking beauty

But now ,when I close my eyes , all I see are hovels and broken houses ,black soot and vile smoke

I used to dream of great friendships , bonds of brotherhood and undying loyalty

But now when I close my eyes , all I see are people I failed and people who failed me

I used to dream of love , of being somebody’s safe haven and finding one for myself

But now when I close my eyes , all I feel is pain and hurt and the rising bile of cynicism

I used to dream of adventures , of riding dragons and scaling peaks

But now when I close my eyes , all I see is my daily commute

I used to dream of being wise , of being endowed with an ageless and peerless foresight

But now when I close my eyes , all I can do is cringe at my never ending follies

I used to dream of a world of my own , a world of warmth and of kindness

But now when I close my eyes , all I can feel is the utter coldness of the world I live in

If only the dreams of my younger self could be the memories of my older one

I am scared now , really scared for I am beginning to forget my dreams

My dreams may be unreal but they give me sustenance ,

My memories are all too real and are poison

So everyday I pray , I plead and I beg the universe

Please give me my unreal dreams back , for I cannot bear to live with my real memories.

BIGOTRY AND IT’S DISCONTENTS

I talked elsewhere about how bigotry is becoming the new ‘wokeness’ in our country. Now the trouble with bigotry is that it is like a poison, a cancer of some kind. It refuses to stay ‘localized’. Once it gains admittance and entry it spreads to other areas.

It is essentially a way of thinking. And once you start adopting bigoted modes of thought , it will not take too long for that to become your default mode , your way of looking at the world.

That is why may be it is not surprising that we have many kinds of bigotry today -religion , language -you name it , we have it. Of course , some times attempts are made to package these – to present these arguments in a ‘refined’ fashion . But make no mistake -this is just vacuous “whataboutery” and still bigotry.

Given how negative an emotion and a mode of thinking bigotry is – it’s attractiveness has always surprised me. It dehumanizes those it targets , it denies them their own identity. It is tinged with hatred. Surely , the inside of a bigot’s head must not be a very pleasant place. Yet bigotry finds so many adherents.

Perhaps , one of the explanations is that it is an ‘easy’ way of thinking. The world is a complex place. The truth is nuanced and difficult to grasp. There is already so much cognitive load on all of us.

Under these circumstances , perhaps bigotry offers an easy way out. A bigoted mode of thinking is always characterized by facile and easy explanations of the world. There is hardly any nuance. Arguments are easy to grasp. You don’t care about the truth. You are just interested in self gratification.

Why bother understanding nuances , when there are facile conspiracy theories that have immediate appeal? Truth seeking is hard work. Being bigoted is easy.

Bigotry is also about identity reductionism. As Amartya Sen says, identity is a complex entity. We are not defined by our religion alone. Or our language alone. There are many things that make us up.

Bigotry denies this rich complexity , by reducing everything to one factor. In recent days , in our country that factor seems to be religion. It is easy to say that people from XX religion are a particular way or all people from YY religion are in danger.

We keep forgetting that there are various kinds of people amongst adherents of every religion- there are nutcases , there are fundamentalists , there are conservatives , there are the non practitioners , there are the devout, there are people who don’t care about their religion . That is true of every religion – Hindu , Muslim , Christian doesn’t matter.

Talking in terms of religious ‘blocs’ is ridiculous and dehumanizing to the say the least. That is what Bigotry does. It turns everything into a culture war.

Bigotry is causing some real , tangible problems in our country today – chief among them the ‘othering’ of minority religious communities.

There is another intangible problem that it is causing – an erosion of modes of thought. Disregard for the truth , impatience with nuance , lack of a scientific temper , irrationality -to name a few. Of course the cause and affect is neither clear nor linear. I think they just feed off each other.

This erosion in the right modes of thinking is equally dangerous. The biggest , most important battles are always fought in the realm of ideas.

Those of us who value diversity , appreciate complexity and nuance and are respectful of the truth should continue to tirelessly endeavor to defeat bigotry in all it’s forms.

UTOPSIA

I wrote a book!!!! My first long work of fiction in novel/novella form. Do check it out. Available on Amazon in e book form.

Here is an outline :

The Democratic Republic of Utopsia is a unique country. For one, the country is ruled by a dictator who is democratically elected. The Utopsians call him Mother. Two, all Utopsians are prohibited, by law, to hide their feelings.
They wear the HAART device at all times. Thanks to advances in wearable technologies and machine learning, this device simply assays their feelings from their bio mechanical indicators. Each of these devices is hooked to the FEELS NETWORK – a massive network of information on what each Utopsian is feeling and has ever felt. Combined with other information, this network is a veritable gold mine on Utopsian attitudes. Both Utopsian corporates and the government tap into this network to gauge people’s attitudes.
Maintaining this network is a specialized job. And a very profitable one. Only two companies in Utopsia are even qualified to win the contract to maintain this network – C.corp and D.corp. The requirement for winning the contract is simple – Root a belief amongst the Utopsians. Make 40% of Utopsians believe something that they didn’t believe in before.
Nysa , the newly appointed Chief Belief officer of D.corp is keen to win the contract for her company this year and make her mark. And she is successful in rooting a belief. Only , she is too successful – the consequences of which she could not have imagined.

A VILE CLOUD

A vile cloud hangs over the country. It is getting continuously impregnated by hatred -growing ever larger and darker. None of us would want to see this cloud bursting. Because if it does , it is only going to rain vile acid. Poison will pour upon us. And that will not be the end. It will only be the beginning of a cycle- dark clouds will form again , rain poison upon us again – this process will repeat till all that is left is ruin and wilderness. Our only hope is that this cloud is blown away by the winds of good sense.

It is the cloud of religious bigotry. We see today many ‘born again’ Hindus. They are hyper aggressively proud of their religion. They are easily offended – by just about everything – it is almost like they are looking for excuses to be offended. They are possessed of an irrational imagination – seeing conspiracies where none exist and almost all of them are animated by hatred – hatred of a kind that scares me.

I grew up in a very religious Hindu family. I count temple priests among my ancestors. My grandfather started his life as a temple priest before moving on to a more secular occupation. I have seen devout Hindus very closely. My Mother is one of them – extremely devout with a deep knowledge and a wide understanding of Hindu scriptures and philosophy. Yet she is no bigot. She is proud of her religion and culture , yet this pride is not of the aggressive and hostile variety. Her pride doesn’t come from a place of hypocritical superiority.

In fact , I have always found her taking a lot of pleasure in the similarities of different faiths. For instance , the similarities between Sufism and the Alwar tradition of SriVaishnavism is something she is overjoyed by. Finding God through love , song and dance and the breaking down of calcified hierarchies -is by itself inspiring. That different faiths seem to have arrived independently at similar humanistic conclusions is even more so.

The point is you can be a proud Hindu -proud of your religion and your culture -without being a Bigot. It is not that difficult. But today , a section of the population seems to be convinced that bigotry is the only way forward. That somehow different faiths cant co exist. That somehow , unless a hierarchy is established between different faiths , co existence is not possible.

Religious bigotry is the new ‘wokeness’ now. It is slowly becoming mainstream. It is being enabled by many with their “What-aboutery”. History is being twisted. Falsehoods are being presented. Atrocities are being invented. Dangers are being imagined. Even something as seemingly innocuous as a snack , seems to threaten us.

We will do well to remember -any country or society that lets religion and faith leave the private spaces of home and family and lets them enter public spaces invariably invites disaster and failure. Faith, by it’s very definition, is subjective and private. Faith and religion are not equipped to offer guidance and direction on how a modern , multi cultural society should be run. Because each faith has evolved in it’s own context ,under very specific set of conditions that made that particular faith amenable to it’s adherents. So when adherents of different faiths come together to co exist – they have to evolve rules of engagement on human and humane terms and based on the best of what each faith has to offer.

This is the very idea that India is based on. The very basis on which a complex ,interwoven social fabric has been stitched over the ages. Today , that very idea is in danger. Forces threaten to rend this fabric and once rent – there is no knowing how long it will take to put it back together again. It is now a battle of ideas and ideals. It is Humanism vs Bigotry.

Hatred is it’s own end. Hatred is it’s own object. However much we may try to convince ourselves that our hatred has particular , specific objects – it is a fire that burns the Hated and the Hater alike. Bigotry and Hatred are cancers that eat away at just about everything. Once given free rein they cant be controlled. Today it is religion , tomorrow it will be something else.

There are always people whose interest it is to see increasing levels of bigotry and hatred in a society. There will always be. However , these are invariably enabled by those that are silent -who say nothing , who don’t condemn. They may not be bigots themselves but these are the people who contribute to it’s growth the most.

The real villain of Nazi Germany was not Hitler. The real villains were the millions of ordinary Germans who chose to stay silent when the Jews were being demonized.

If you are silent , you are complicit. If you are silent , you are no better than the bigots and the hatemongers.

ORDINARY EVIL

I read an article in a magazine recently. It was on the plight of the polish Jews in the Second World War during the German occupation of Poland. Jews were of course being systematically eliminated across Nazi Germany and German occupied lands. Similar exterminations were unfolding in Poland. In Poland, the Germans had drafted Polish citizens into a ‘citizen’s militia’. This militia was taking active part in the exterminations. So it was ordinary Polish citizens playing an active part in eliminating their fellow citizens. They would apparently break into Jewish homes during the night. They would take them out into the woods and simply shoot them. They would not discriminate either basis age or gender. They would kill the old and the infirm and the children too. Some of them even considered killing children an “act of kindness”, particularly those who had lost their parents to said exterminations. This, of course, is common knowledge.

  The article’s focus was something else. It was on the ‘ordinariness’ of the constitution of this citizen militia. The members of the said militia were ‘average joes’. Ordinary people. Some holding blue collar and some holding white collar jobs. Under normal circumstances you would not have mistaken them for such cold blooded killers. A lot of them would have been good neighbors and helpful human beings. Some of them were even friends with the very Jews they were helping kill. This struck me. The ordinariness. The sheer capacity for evil that somehow emerged under a certain set of circumstances. One would not have mistaken these people to be bad or evil before. Yet here they were. Murdering in cold blood. They were not paid killers either. Around 20% of them apparently were distressed the first time they did this. But a lot of them, 80%, continued indulging in this. They went on killing. They continued to take orders. They continued to obey authority towards these ends. I was struck by this as much as I was struck by the extent of hatred which is needed to accomplish this. Did they hate the Jews so much? Even gentile citizens who were not part of the killings, knew something like this was going on. Yet, across Nazi Germany, everyone seems to have commiserated with the killings. It was almost like a conspiracy of silence. Were all of them so badly affected by the Jews, that they actively condoned this?

 I am hard pressed for an explanation. But upon further reflection, it occurs to me that such behavior is not out of the ordinary. It occurs time and again. The Stanford Prison experiment, for instance, shows us both people’s capacity to submit to authority as also their ability to inflict pain on their fellows. People don’t necessarily either actively resist or actively speak up against evil.

Closer home, take the 2002 riots for example. Again ordinary citizens, transformed. Extracting an illusory ‘revenge’. Protecting a false ‘ideal’. And of course, egged on by self-serving and irresponsible leaders. One may not agree with the parallels being drawn. What happened in Germany was genocide. They were systematic. These were just riots. Spontaneous. I would submit that this is just semantics. And that the similarities dwarf the differences. Here too we have stories of ordinary citizens, ‘good people’ otherwise, participating actively in the riots. No one would have considered them killers. Yet they were. And many who didn’t participate actively, condoned the killings, either passively by their silence or actively, later by their votes. Hell, around 34% of the active voting population of the country-twice.Of course, we voted for different things. Most would say they voted for development. But in full knowledge of what transpired.

It is quite scary actually. That when it comes right down to it, our capacity to question and stand up to evil is questionable. That we may fail ourselves at the critical moment. History seems to be full of such examples. We either become silent or we become complicit. Or we simply do not care. When it comes right down to it, we become one with the evil – for personal gains, out of an inability to question or via apathy. In that sense, it looks like a powder keg we are all sitting on. The right circumstances and it will always blow up. This is all the more scary considering how just about everything is communalized in our country these days. Things are either green or orange.

In Nazi Germany, there was a long campaign of hatred and misinformation against the Jews. However, this misinformation also fell on a fertile ground of bigotry that always existed. Together, this is what perhaps produced the circumstances for the subsequent genocide. We have something similar playing out in our country today. Of course the ruling dispensation here is nowhere as explicit in their hatred as the Nazis were. At least the top echelons are not. They have suitably modified this playbook for the pseudo democratic milieu we inhabit. The ruling dispensation gives us a masterclass on how to press democracy into the services of dictatorship. But that aside, what is really striking is how bigotry is becoming mainstream. I am discovering attitudes in people that I had not seen a few years back. Most of us seem to be ‘casually bigoted’. I have known of people – friends, relatives who used to justify the 2002 riots. I always thought they were nuts. And used to think that, thankfully, there are not many of them. However, the ranks of these people seem to be swelling. Hatred and bigotry are mainstream. They are fashionable.

There is a vehement sense of grievance. A palpable, passionate hatred. A sense that certain ‘wrongs’ need to be righted. The sense of the ‘other’ strengthens. Facts don’t seem to matter. Reality be damned.

And as things get worse, these attitudes only harden. Reason slowly ceases to exist. Facts are actively ignored. And the vicious cycle repeats.

It is quite scary. I have a feeling it is only going to get worse.